2019 Oscars (And Predictions) - Maximum Cynicismnerffan8000 I'm not going to watch the Oscars this year, this is the morning before the awards show and I'm finalizing that now. The Oscars have been routinely embarrassing themselves with every new awards show, not to mention embarrassing themselves this year with each and every vain attempt of getting viewers getting shut down. Anyone remember that Most Popular Film category? I still do, and the nominees themselves makes me feel like the voters of The Academy morphed into Lenny Wosniak. The Academy's motto for this year is "How do you do, fellow kids?" Many of the nominees for Best Picture such as Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, and especially Black Panther don't seem to be best of the year worthy at all, even the ones I haven't seen yet like Bohemian Rhapsody seem to have been chosen because the Academy was scared of nominating more obscure films - after all, last year was the lowest rated Oscars in 44 years and they chose more obscure films, their lack of viewership couldn't possibly be due to the awards show only being available on slowly dying cable or over-politicized, unfunny attempts at humor! Nah, it had to be what we chose to nominate!
With a hostless Oscars it might prove to be more bearable for all I know, but I'm not going to spend four hours watching the husks of people we know actors and certain directors to be dance around a stage while knowing a large majority of the films that are nominated for awards I don't care about. The only two nominations I feel are justified for Best Picture are The Favourite and Roma, the rest of them seem like Oscar bait mediocrity to flat-out trash. Then again what do I know, I'm just a salty sixteeny. Anyway, I'm not here just to throw all the possible shade I have on the Oscars until my own shadow disappears from reality, this is also a chance to give my predictions before the awards show is over, just so I can say "I told you so!" later down the line to about five people. With that said, let's get on with the awards themselves.
Best Documentary Short: Does anyone care about this? I genuinely want to know, do people genuinely care about this award? More people are getting awards and I'm sure it helps them with their careers, but this holds no weight for me at all. Most of the documentary shorts I watch are on YouTube, and nothing from there is going to get any votes because the Academy would feel threatened - new medium and new service, it's scary! Just give it to Period. End of Sentence. End of segment. Next.
Best Live-Action Short: Right away I doubt Detainment's gonna win, easily the most controversial out of the bunch. Normally I don't have much stake in these but I actually want Fauve to win, and I have a feeling it will win because of the one thing The Academy and I have in common, we both hate joy and laughter. Any piece of media that makes me feel either of those things is automatically inferior to ones that don't (If you can't tell this is slightly exaggerated by now, I don't know how I can help you).
Best Animated Short: This is a category that exists because Disney and Pixar need some awards, and because Pixar made a short film this year it's gotta go to Bao. It even got Incredibles 2 backing, so it's got this. Normally I would complain but last year we had an accused sexual assaulter win an Oscar that Christopher Nolan can never get because he made an ego project trying desperately to be inspirational and poetic, so please just give the award to Pixar already.
Best Visual Effects: Now onto the award that's only allowed to exist for movies that have tons upon tons of visual effects. If you don't have gigantic CG monsters or aliens or the most obvious visual effects imaginable, you never truly put work into it. I'm fine with any of these winning so long as Ready Player One doesn't get it, that's the only film nominated that has bad visual effects. Might as well have nominated Venom, or nominated Aladdin before it even came out, we all know that movie's gonna have fantastic visual effects work, don't we? I personally think First Man deserves it but it could go to Infinity War also, either way I'm alright with it.
Best Production Design: Either Roma or The Favourite, wouldn't be too disappointed with any of them here but I'm leaning toward The Favourite. That's about it, moving on. I'm not gonna spend an eternity talking about "production design," come on now.
Best Costume Design: Going with The Favourite again, Black Panther might have a shot (especially if Disney campaigns for it hard enough). I wouldn't say any of them have bad costume design and don't deserve the nomination, although I couldn't care less about this Mary Queen of Scots movie, feels like one of those films that's made with the goal of getting these Oscars for recognition. Would've preferred The Sisters Brothers to get nominated for either this category or the one above but The Academy doesn't like nominating obscure movies anymore, remember?
Best Make-Up/Hairstyling: It's going to go to Vice, is anyone debating this one? Is anyone debating and fighting each other over which film has the best make-up? Fight between the prosthetic enhancements of Christian Bale or the make up put on Saoirse Ronan, fight to the death. Shed blood, sweat, and tears over the make-up category! Then again this wouldn't be an issue if these low-tier Oscars weren't one of the few pieces of support make-up artists, costume designers, etc. had in Hollywood, because they don't have any support at all. Oh Hollywood.
Best Original Song: Remember when the Oscars were originally going to play 2 out of 5 nominated songs during the ceremony? I do. Might as well have gotten rid of this entire award because they're always so desperate to fill this slot and there are plenty of other award ceremonies dedicated to music anyway, and they're probably a lot better at judging than these Academy voters. Most of the time it's to give Disney or Pixar another award, after all who needs to give support to talented artists like Sufjan Stevens anyway? Because it's A Star is Born, Shallow probably has this one. Hopefully not All The Stars and I definitely hope it doesn't go to I'll Fight, which is probably just a filler entry. Probably dug it up from RBG because they don't want to watch more movies and challenge themselves.
Best Original Score: I'll reinstate my claim of there being music awards that do a better job of selecting nominees than The Academy because this is quite possibly the worst selection of Best Original Score nominees I've seen. Suspiria, Hereditary, You Were Never Really Here, bah! Who needs them when we've got Disney properties! We're ABC, owned by Disney, and we need the approval of the mouse. Then again I can't expect Academy voters to nominate anything new or fresh considering Good Time was snubbed last year, which is one of the best scores I've ever listened to. Anyhow, Isle of Dogs is the best one but the composer of that one won last year so they're probably just gonna give it to Beale Street. As long as Black Panther doesn't win I'm fine with it. For the record I don't hate Black Panther or its use of music, Gaspar Noé can hold that opinion for me. I still can't believe some journalists thought he went "too far" because he said he didn't like Black Panther, even a half-insane TopTens user like me can tell you to grow up at that point.
Best Animated Feature Film: Hey look it's a category that might resort to Disney or Pixar pandering this year, a rare sight to behold but I also wouldn't be surprised if Incredibles 2 won. I would be surprised if Isle of Dogs won because that would mean they chose the best animated film out of the year, that's not what The Academy is good at! They're supposed to be good at not watching any of the nominees because "lol it's a kid's movie" obviously! I'm hoping Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse wins because I think it's both better than Incredibles 2 and actually has a shot at winning. I'm betting Spider-Man but if Incredibles 2 wins I at least won't be surprised.
Best Documentary: Won't You Be My Neighbor? and They Shall Not Grow Old apparently never existed so we're sticking with what we got this year. I haven't seen any of these but from what I can gather, Free Solo seems like the most likely candidate for snagging the Oscar this year.
Best Foreign Language Film: As you guys should know, I watch foreign films fairly frequently, too bad I can't even find most of these in time! Not that it matters because we all know Roma is gonna win anyway, but I'd at least want to see Shoplifters. Also can we just acknowledge that the system of each country having to submit their own entry for this category is likely put in place because Academy voters don't want to get out of their comfort zone and watch foreign film? God forbid French extremism! Who needs to watch Climax even though it probably has better cinematography than most of the nominees for that category! Oh, speaking of which.
Best Cinematography: I'm impressed by the amount of foreign films for this slot but I'm actually quite happy about that, a rare sight so far I know. I'm going to stick to my guns and go with Roma on this one, although The Favourite seems like a well deserved win as well. With all of the long takes present though I'm sure Roma's gonna take it, I don't know why A Star is Born is there by the way. It looks nothing special on that front.
Best Editing: I'm seriously hoping Bohemian Rhapsody doesn't win this one because if clips are anything to go by, the editing for that one is genuinely bad. "If we cut every two seconds that will make the editing in our film more noticeable and give it more recognition at the awards! That's good editing, right?" I haven't seen it but from what I hear Vice is probably gonna win unless the Academy voters lose their perception and mistake Bohemian Rhapsody for another one of their beloved Jean-Luc Goddard masterpieces.
Best Sound Editing/Mixing: I'm grouping these together because Academy voters hardly tell the difference. Last year it was the same nominations for both of them, it's only more complicated this year because A Quiet Place got nominated for Best Sound Editing, even though the sound in A Quiet Place kept taking me out of the movie? Oh well, it's noticeable sound editing and that's all that matters! Roma is easily the best when it comes to its sound but First Man is also fairly reliant on it. Also the loudest movies win the sound awards as evidenced by Dunkirk somehow winning last year, so I'm gonna say First Man.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Academy clearly haven't seen You Were Never Really Here or The Sisters Brothers but hey, that's The Academy. While there are plenty of reasons for any of these films to win, BlacKkKlansman is likely going to win for one reason and one reason alone, because it doubles as an honorary Oscar. It may not be their best work but The Academy needs to give them something because they're an influential creator now. Wouldn't have needed to happen if you at least nominated Do the Right Thing, oh well. Regardless, BlacKkKlansman is my vote here.
Best Original Screenplay: Otherwise known as best "real" screenplay! I still wish I had gotten to see First Reformed in time but I'm sure that's what 90% of The Academy would like to say when 20 years later that's remembered as one of the biggest snubs of the Oscars. At any rate, I'm going to say Roma on this one but it's a toughie. The Favourite I could see taking home a win for this category as well. As much as I hate to admit it, Green Book is definitely going to have its way with the older crowd of The Academy. I'll stand by Roma but if I'm wrong with this, oh well. It's not like I'll be watching the awards ceremony.
Best Supporting Actor: I don't have much investment in this one, many of the best performances have been glossed over regardless. The Academy doesn't need to go out of their way to find the best performances when they can just pick from the same 10-15 movies anyway. I'm sure Mahershala Ali will take home this one either way, I know Green Book's getting some awards.
Best Supporting Actress: When there's two actors or actresses nominated for the same movie I'm fairly confident that one of them is taking it. Emma Stone already won Best Picture so I'll give it to Rachel Weisz. As much as I would love Marina de Tavira taking home the Oscar here, I doubt The Academy will vote for her.
Best Lead Actor: From what I've heard Willem Dafoe actually gave the best performance of the year with At Eternity's Gate, but I'd be genuinely surprised if that wins. I haven't seen it, I only vaguely knew about it before The Academy nominated it in the first place. It's at least a better film to nominate Willem Dafoe than Aquaman. As for who I think will actually win, I'm going with Rami Malek here. I haven't seen Bohemian Rhapsody but everyone seems to agree that he did a fantastic job, also it helps that he hasn't gotten anything from The Academy yet. Then again we might as well have Christian Bale thanking Satan again, which is what a few award winners should be doing all the time, because Bale does have a point.
Best Lead Actress: I haven't seen The Wife but that's one I didn't even know about until it won at the Golden Globes. Not that it matters because I'm fairly confident in Olivia Colman taking home the Oscar here. Melissa McCarthy is getting an Academy Award nomination simply because she didn't play a character that doesn't fall over in a movie. She showed some range beyond a Ghostbusters 2016 or Happytime Murders character so that should be enough for her circle, it's clear The Academy loves Melissa McCarthy and gave her the nomination.
Best Director: Why is Adam McKay even here? There are dozens of other directors that deserve the nomination far more just from seeing clips of Vice, not that it matters because there's no way he'll win, it's abundantly clear to me that Alfonso Cuarón has this in the bag. Yorgos Lanthimos and Spike Lee are the only two I can reasonably see giving Cuarón a run for his money, but even then I'd say The Academy loves Alfonso more than the other two. If he can get nominations and wins for Gravity then he can surely get nominations for something good like Roma.
Best Picture: Now we get into the most snub-filled, blandest Best Picture line-up in recent memory. There's very few things in this slot that actually have a chance. I don't consider Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, BlacKkKlansman, A Star is Born as contenders at all. I also don't know if The Favourite will get much support from The Academy voters. As hilarious as it sounds, Black Panther genuinely has a shot. Because the Academy decides to do ranking systems of 1-8, consistent 2nd and 3rd place votes count much more than inconsistent 1st place votes, because we all know the point of an awards show is to give a win to the 2nd/3rd placed film, am I right? Green Book definitely has a shot when it comes to connecting with the older Academy voters. It screams a movie that was made for The Academy and people who can't get enough of predictable sap. Needless to say, Roma is the one that I'm hoping wins but I have my doubts, I have my doubts for one particular reason - Netflix. You see, The Academy is scared of anything that might interfere with theaters, and Netflix as a competitor is simply too scary for them. How could they possible give out the best film award to the best film of the year when it's produced and distributed by Netflix?! That can't be right! Plus it's a slowly paced film, and that could tire out some of the older Academy voters! That leaves me with the two nominations I'm least excited about - Black Panther and Green Book. A recipe for a great awards ceremony, without a doubt. With my lack of care toward either of these, I flipped a coin and ended up getting Green Book. The fact that I have to flip a coin because of how little I care about who I think will win explains quite a lot of why I have no interest in watching this year's Oscars, if I do say so myself.
In short, you can tell that I have no investment at all in these nominations and find most of them to be a massive joke. I haven't watched every film of 2018 nor can I say with certainty what the best films of each category are, but this is why I'm not a member of The Academy. The Academy has routinely embarrassed themselves at every turn this year and plenty of years before, but the underlying theme I see with The Academy is that they don't seem to bother trying to find the best films of the year. There are some exceptions to this, there are Academy voters who actually care about what they're doing, only problem is their overshadowed by incompetency. Remember that The Academy is a conglomerate of out of touch men who likely vote and watch movies simply because of how much they're paid to do so, and will judge a film and whether or not it's worthy because "I don't like this political aspect of it" or "How could I vote for this if it damages my or our reputation?!" These are the voters we're entrusting to decide what the best film of the year is each year and it's why the Oscars should never be taken seriously ever, both in terms of picking what films are the best for which category and as a source of entertainment. Need I remind everyone that The Academy once thought a good skit was "haha! We're interacting with normal people, isn't that crazy? Let's shoot hot dogs at these poor people because we're celebrities and can do whatever we want with them, and they'll gawk at it! I have bragging rights for touching a poor person!" Luckily that's going away this awards season so my disdain to the Oscars have diminished by .05% as a generous estimate.
Anyway, hope you enjoyed my somewhat exaggerated take on the joke that is this awards show. Even if you didn't laugh at me, you'll laugh at the absurd nonsense The Academy pulls if you haven't already. Feel free to go down in the comments and tell me how wrong I am below, not that it matters because both this post and every comment made on it will evaporate in the stains of time when we all die. Take care everyone. (And seriously, I genuinely appreciate everyone's support. Whether you follow me or not or even like what I wrote, I appreciate you taking the time to read through it).
For those of you who are keeping track and just want the shortlist of my predictions, here's your TL;DR edition. These aren't the ones I think should win, these are my predictions of what will.
Best Picture - Green Book
Best Director - Alfonso Cuarón
Best Actress - Olivia Colman
Best Actor - Rami Malek
Best Supporting Actress - Rachel Weisz
Best Supporting Actor - Mahershala Ali
Best Original Screenplay - Roma
Best Adapted Screenplay - BlacKkKlansman
Best Sound Editing/Mixing - First Man
Best Editing - Vice
Best Cinematography - Roma
Best Foreign Film - Roma
Best Documentary - Free Solo
Best Animated Film - Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
Best Original Score - If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Song - Shallow
Best Make-Up - Vice
Best Costume Design - The Favourite
Best Production Design - The Favourite
Best Visual Effects - First Man
Best Animated Short - Bao
Best Live-Action Short - Fauve
Best Documentary Short - Period. End of Sentence. - nerffan8000
I called it, I totally called it. That's what makes this embarrassing. Green Book for Best Picture. Green. Book. Also Bohemian Rhapsody won Best Editing. Why couldn't I have been wrong, uggh. - nerffan8000
Bohemian Rhapsody for best editing? They must have been drunk. You also have to have Ali to win. - iliekpiez
Being drunk is reserved for the Golden Globes, it is the drunk rehearsal for the Oscars after all. Like I said, they probably just mistook it for a new Jean-Luc film because they're old and don't know what editing amounts to other than obvious editing. - nerffan8000
1. Bohemian Rhapsody nominated and even won for best editing, that literally made me throw up in my mouth
2. Vice, Black Panther, and Bohemian Rhapsody nominated for best picture? I don't consider them concatianers at all.
3. Why give the winners to those that are basic oscar bait movies that are culturally and politically significant. The Oscar goes to Green Book and Black Panther!
3. There's way too many great movies, writers, actors, and actresses being snubbed each category.
Best Picture: Hereditary, First Reformed, If Beale Street Could Talk, Blindspotting, Annihilation, First Man, Widows, You Were Never Really Here, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Shoplifters, Burning, Cold War etc.
Best Actor: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here) etc.
Best Actress: Toni Collette (Hereditary), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) etc.
Best Original Screenplay: Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade), Rafael Casal & Daveed Diggs (Blindspotting), Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You) etc.
Best Documentary: Won't You Be My Neighbor? , They Shall Not Grow Old, Three Identical Strangers etc. - BurnAux