Top 10 Places Most Likely to Become Independent in the 2020s

With Bougainville voting for independence in its 2019 referendum and progress toward full nationhood ongoing, it is a good time to reflect on other regions that could gain independence. Geography is always changing as new countries form, some disappear, and borders continue to shift.

In recent decades, fewer countries have emerged compared to earlier periods. South Sudan became independent in 2011, while Kosovo and Montenegro gained recognition as independent states in the 2000s. As we move through the mid-2020s, which regions might be next on the path to statehood? Let's explore some possibilities.

1. Scotland

   

   Scotland held an independence referendum in 2014 on whether to stay in or leave the United Kingdom. A slight majority voted against independence.

   However, with the United Kingdom having left the EU, there have been renewed discussions about another referendum, as many Scots want to be part of the European Union. It would not be surprising if another referendum takes place.

   As a Scottish person, I can quite confidently say that independence is very likely to happen in the next 10 years, especially in the wake of COVID and Brexit.

2. Bougainville

   

   Bougainville is a likely candidate on this list for a number of reasons. The people there have wanted independence for a long time, dating back to the independence of Papua New Guinea. Many people in this region identify more closely with the Solomon Islands due to Bougainville being part of the same island chain.

   They held a referendum in which a large majority voted for independence. It is not yet independent, but it is negotiating with the government of Papua New Guinea.

3. New Caledonia

   

   New Caledonia is a small Pacific archipelago in Melanesia, very close to Vanuatu, but it is currently under French authority. The natives of this archipelago are known as Kanaks, and the territory has long been associated with independence movements.

   They held a referendum in 2018 in which a slight majority voted against independence.

   France still owns overseas territory in Oceania, so I feel like they should be independent.

4. Catalonia

   

   Catalonia is one of Spain's autonomous communities and sits in the northeastern part of the country, bordering France and the Mediterranean Sea. It is home to Barcelona, Spain's second-largest city, and has its own distinct language, Catalan, which is a Romance language separate from Spanish.

   In 2017, Catalonia held an independence referendum that was ruled unconstitutional by Spain's courts, and its results were not recognized by the national government. Since then, the independence movement has remained active through political campaigns, demonstrations, and regional elections rather than through another legally binding vote.

5. Kurdistan

   

   This is probably the most famous example on the list. The Kurds are an ethnic group situated in the Middle East, occupying areas of eastern Turkey, northern Syria and Iraq, and western Iran. The Kurds are the largest ethnic group in the world without a recognized state.

   The reason this is not ranked higher is because no binding referendum has yet taken place across Kurdistan as a whole, and despite long-standing efforts, it remains unclear when independence might be achieved.

6. California

   

   California is a state in the Southwestern United States. With 39.6 million residents across a total area of about 163,696 square miles (423,970 square kilometers), California is the most populous U.S. state and the third largest by area. The state capital is Sacramento, and the largest city is Los Angeles.... read more

7. Basque

   

   The Basque Country is an autonomous community in northern Spain with a distinct cultural and historical identity. The Basque people are notable for their language, Euskara, which is a language isolate and unrelated to other known European languages.

   While violent separatism has largely ended, support for greater autonomy or independence still exists through political parties and regional institutions. The issue now plays out mostly in elections and policy debates rather than armed conflict.

8. Republika Srpska

   

   Bosnia and Herzegovina is made up of two main entities, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, along with the self-governing Brčko District. The country's population is primarily composed of Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats, with Republika Srpska having a Serb majority.

   Political leaders in Republika Srpska have periodically pushed for greater autonomy and have floated the idea of secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina. These moves are highly controversial and face strong opposition domestically and internationally due to the country's post-war constitutional framework.

9. Unified Korea

   

   This is not a likely scenario, but it is possible that North Korea (DPRK) and South Korea (RK) might merge to become one country, finally reuniting the two Koreas after decades of political separation. I doubt this event will happen this decade, but no one knows for sure if they will succeed.

   Kim Jong-Un's sister, Kim Yo-Jong, is the keystone for unifying the Korean Peninsula.

10. Puerto Rico

    

    Puerto Rico has its own government and can control itself.

The Newcomers
11. ?

    Kingdom of France

12. ?

    Somaliland

    
The Contenders

13. Hong Kong

    

    Hong Kong had its own government and economy when it was controlled by Britain. Why can't they have that now?

14. Taiwan

    

    Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), is a country in East Asia, at the junction of the East and South China Seas in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. It is located near the People's Republic of China (PRC) to the northwest, Japan to the northeast, and the Philippines to the south. The ROC controls... read more

15. Palestine

    

    Palestine (State of Palestine) is a de jure sovereign state in Western Asia. It is officially governed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and claims the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. However, its claimed territory has been occupied by Israel since the Six-Day War of 1967. The West Bank is... read more

16. Western Sahara

    

    Western Sahara is a region in northwestern Africa currently under the rule of Morocco. This is the only piece of land left in mainland Africa that, despite its enormous size, still has not achieved independence.

    When decolonization began and Spain left the region, Mauritania and Morocco started fighting over it. Mauritania eventually stepped down, after which Morocco annexed most of the territory. This upset the Polisario Front, the independence movement in the region.

17. Greenland

    

    Greenland is an island country that is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. It is located between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, east of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Greenland is the world's largest island and one of the three constituent countries of the Kingdom of Denmark, alongside Denmark and the... read more

18. Chuuk

    

    Chuuk is one of the four states of the Federated States of Micronesia, a Pacific island nation made up of hundreds of islands spread across a large area of ocean. It is the most populous of the four states, although the national capital is located in Palikir in the state of Pohnpei. Chuuk has seen repeated discussions and votes related to independence over the years, driven by political and economic disagreements with the federal government.

19. New York

    

    New York is a state located in the Mid-Atlantic region. It was one of the original thirteen colonies that formed the United States. As of 2025, it is the fourth most populous state, with over 19 million residents. To distinguish the state from the city with the same name, it is sometimes referred to... read more

20. East African Federation

    

21. Florida

    

    Florida is a state located in the southeastern region of the United States. It is the southeasternmost U.S. state, with the Atlantic Ocean on one side and the Gulf of Mexico on the other. Florida is known for its warm climate, tourism industry, and diverse population.

22. Alaska

    

    Alaska is a U.S. state situated in the northwest extremity of the Americas. The Canadian administrative divisions of British Columbia and Yukon border the state to the east, and it has a maritime border with Russia to the west across the Bering Strait. Alaska is the largest U.S. state by area and is... read more

23. Macau

    

24. Texas

    

    Texas is a state in the southern United States. It is the second largest by both area and population. Its largest city is Houston, and the state's economy is diverse, including energy, technology, agriculture, and aerospace. It is also known for its hot weather, which can reach around 100 °F in many... read more

    Texas will most likely be the first U.S. state to regain independence!

25. Western Togoland

26. North Sentinel Island

    

    Aren't these people basically independent with occasional help from India?

27. Nagaland