Top Ten Places Most Likely to Become Independent in the 2020s

With the Bougainville independence referendum having taken place some months ago, I've decided to make a list about places that might get independent in the 2020s. Geography always changes. New countries form, some countries disappear, et cetera. As of this century, a lesser amount of countries have been created though. in the 2000s, Serbia and Montenegro officially became countries and in 2010, South Sudan achieved independence. What will this decade release from its owners? Let's predict in this list.
The Top Ten
1 Scotland Scotland did have an independence referendum back in 2014 on whether to stay or leave the United Kingdom. A slight majority voted against independence, but now, with the United Kingdom having left the EU at last, there are now talks of a new referendum, as the Scots want to be part of the European Union. So we shouldn't be surprised if another referendum takes place.

As a Scottish person, I can quite confidently say that independence is very likely to happen in the next 10 years, especially in the wake of COVID and Brexit.

2 Bougainville Bougainville is a likely candidate on this list for a number of reasons. The people there have been wanting independence for a long time since the independence of Papua New Guinea. The people in this region of the country identify themselves more closely with the Solomon Islands due to the island being part of the chain.

On top of that, they had a referendum a month ago in which a good majority voted for independence. It still isn't independent, but it's negotiating with the government of Papua New Guinea.
3 New Caledonia New Caledonia is a small Pacific archipelago in Melanesia, very close to Vanuatu but it is currently under French authority at the time of this list. The natives of this archipelago are known as Kanaks, and this place has been known for wanting independence. They did have a referendum in 2018 in which a slight majority voted against independence.

France still owns overseas territory in Oceania, so I feel like they should be independent.

4 Catalonia This is a known one that has been a bit in the news lately. Catalonia is one of the autonomous provinces of Spain and the Easternmost one, containing the second-largest city in Spain, Barcelona. Their official language is Catalan which, from what I've heard, sounds like a fusion of French and Spanish.

They had an independence referendum in late 2017, and while it succeeded, the Spanish government declared the referendum illegal, so protests are still continuing to this day.
5 Kurdistan This is probably the most famous example on the list. The Kurds are an ethnic group situated in the middle of the Middle East, occupying an area consisting of Eastern Turkey, northern Syria and Iraq, and western Iran. The Kurds are the largest ethnic group in the entire world without a state.

The reason this isn't any higher is because no referendum has yet taken place, and they've been fighting so long for independence that it's unclear when they will achieve it.
6 California California is a state in the Southwestern United States. With 39.6 million residents across a total area of about 163,696 square miles (423,970 square kilometers), California is the most populous U.S. state and the third-largest by area. The state capital is Sacramento, and the largest city is Los Angeles... read more
7 Basque Basque is another Spanish autonomous province, located in Northern Spain. This province is unique because the Basques, despite being located in Europe, are not related to any other people group, and their language, Basque or Euskara, is not related to any other language, making it one of the only language isolates of Europe. Therefore, some independence movements are sure to arise sooner or later.
8 Republika Srpska Bosnia and Herzegovina is a complicated place. It has three constituent people groups: the Bosniaks, the Serbs, and the Croats. Most of the Bosniaks and Croats live in the entity Federation of B-H, while the Serbs live in Republika Srpska.

These people have been longing for a reunification with the Republic of Serbia, and they have threatened that if Kosovo declares full independence from Serbia, they will not hesitate to annex themselves to Serbia.
9 Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico has its own government and can control itself.

10 Unified Korea

This is not a likely scenario, but it is possible that North Korea (DPRK) and South Korea (RK) might merge to become one country, finally reuniting the two Koreas after decades of political separation. I doubt this event will happen this decade, but no one knows for sure if they will succeed.

The Contenders
11 Hong Kong

Hong Kong had its own government and economy when it was controlled by Britain. Why can't they have that now?

12 Western Sahara Western Sahara is a region in northwestern Africa, currently under the rule of Morocco. This is the only piece of land left in mainland Africa that, despite its enormous size, still hasn't achieved independence.

When decolonization began and Spain left this region, Mauritania and Morocco started fighting over it. Mauritania eventually stepped down, so Morocco annexed it. This upset the Polisario Front, the independence movement in the region, very much.
13 Palestine Palestine (State of Palestine, is a de jure sovereign state in Western Asia. It is officially governed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and claims the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. However, its claimed territory has been occupied by Israel since the Six-Day War of 1967; the West Bank is... read more
14 Greenland Greenland is an island country part of the Kingdom of Denmark. It is located between the Arctic and Atlantic oceans, east of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Greenland is the world's largest island, it is one of the three constituent countries that form the Kingdom of Denmark, along with Denmark and... read more
15 Taiwan Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), is a country in East Asia, at the junction of the East and South China Seas in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) to the northwest, Japan to the northeast, and the Philippines to the south. The territories controlled... read more
16 Chuuk Chuuk is one of the four states of the huge archipelago in the Pacific called the Federated States of Micronesia. Chuuk is the largest of the four states and also contains the capital city. Ironically, this is the state that wants to break away.
17 East African Federation
18 New York New York is a state located in the Mid-Atlantic Region. New York was one of the original thirteen colonies that formed the United States. With an estimated 19.54 million residents in 2018, it is the fourth most populous state. In order to distinguish the state from the city with the same name, it is... read more
19 Florida Florida is a state located in the southeastern region of the United States. Florida is the southeasternmost U.S. state, with the Atlantic on one side and the Gulf of Mexico on the other.
20 Macau
21 Alaska Alaska is a U.S. state situated in the northwest extremity of the Americas. The Canadian administrative divisions of British Columbia and Yukon border the state to the east; it has a maritime border with Russia to the west across the Bering Strait.
22 North Sentinel Island

Aren't these people basically independent with occasional help from India?

23 Israel Israel, officially the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia. It is situated on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea, and shares borders with Lebanon to the north, Syria to the northeast, Jordan to the east, and Egypt to the southwest; it is also... read more

To be fair, Israel has had a rough past, but the Jews do need a place to live.

24 Western Togoland
25 Texas Texas is a state in the Southern USA. It is the second largest by area and population. Its largest city is Houston.

Texas will most likely be the first U.S. state to regain independence!

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