Top 10 Facts Pundits Overlooked During the 2016 U.S. Presidential Electionmarmalade_skies In hindsight everything seems so clear, but last year, many people thought that Hillary Clinton would have an easy victory and that Donald Trump had little chance. Even his own supporters were saying it was rigged in her favor. Polls, which had predicted every election up to this point, were decidedly putting her in the lead. She also had far less battleground states to win, and Trump's controversial comments were seen as debilitating for his campaign
People have a tendency to want to confirm what they believe, and many times when we're confronted with things that we don't want to hear, we automatically reject them. Many people lived in a bubble of information that validated their views and the many advantages Trump had were overlooked. Here's what we all missed.
The Top Ten
In nearly every election, the more charismatic person wins, or at least the less charismatic person loses. Reagan was more charismatic than Carter and Mondale. Obama was more charismatic than Romney and McCain. The Bushes were not especially charming, but Dukakis and Kerry both lacked energy.
In this election, Trump was by far more charismatic. Remember that charismatic does not mean nice and it does not mean likeable. Charisma means being able to energize voters, and Trump did this. Clinton failed to make an emotional connection with voters. - marmalade_skies
Trump has actually had the lowest approval rating of any modern president. - GrimmShady
No matter what controversies happened, his poll numbers remained unharmed, yet his opponent's claimed that his most recent controversy would be the one that ended his campaign. - marmalade_skies
Polls generally had Clinton 2-4% ahead of Trump nationwide the whole time. Yes, it's an advantage. But with a difference so small, pundits were not correct in saying she had a 90% chance of winning. - marmalade_skies
It's very hard for a party to keep the presidency more than two terms. Clinton, running for a third term, had to battle against inertia. - marmalade_skies
In 2012, they polled very well with Obama, but in 2016, this advantaged shifted to Trump.
Many people ignored the fact that a key demographic of Obama's went to Trump. - marmalade_skies
Whoever wins Florida wins the election, generally. But more specifically, Florida is the tightest swing state in the country. If Trump were to be beaten by a landslide, he likely wouldn't have been tying with her in Florida polls. - marmalade_skies
This is typically an indicator of an unstable election. Perot in 1992. Nader in 2000. Jill Stein and Gary Johnson in 2016. Did these third parties in themselves shift the election? I'm not sure. But there's no doubt they indicate a desire for parties to change. - marmalade_skies
There are millions of people who favored Clinton over Trump but weren't enthusiastic enough to go and vote for her. - marmalade_skiesV 1 Comment
There's no such thing as silent Trump supporters. Everyone who liked him were very loud and obnoxious. Shamelessly, I was those people. What? A person likes to be expressive, okay?
Us trump supporters like to call this the "silent majority" - Jackamalio
Due to strong aversion to Trump, many of his supporters hid their support to avoid being called a racist or misogynist at their work/school/social circle. Many Republicans condemned him publicly, but voted for him behind curtains.
His turnout was similar to Romney's and not as depressed as many expected. - marmalade_skies
Pundits universally agreed Clinton had a 99% chance of beating Sanders in the Michigan primary but he ended up winning decisively.
This meant that pundits were not always right, and that rust-belt voters were angry at the establishment.
In general, Clinton won the primaries with much more opposition than most expected. - marmalade_skies
The stigma against Trump supporters did cause the Clinton camp to overestimate their advantages. - marmalade_skies
Insane SJW's were chasing people over to Trumps side by the thousands. Good work.
I don't think anyone suggested that it did - marmalade_skies
Except in this case it did, by far! Like her or not, Hillary Clinton WAS the most qualified candidate to ever run for president in American history!V 1 Comment
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2. Trump's approval rating was bulletproof
3. Trump was only slightly behind